|Rate (per day)||2.75||9.48|
Generated with BBoe's Subreddit Stats
|Rate (per day)||2.75||9.53|
Generated with BBoe's Subreddit Stats
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Singles: 1-3 (-2.1u) Little rough here, HOU took a lead with defense so there offense wasnt needed much. Gurly had 15 carrys and 2 TDs, but only mustered 50 yards. Perriman went offffff.
Parlay: 1-1 (+3.6u) That was decent. Was nice to free roll a win after the Pats game, would have been nicer if the Rams could play defense on third and long when you know Jimmy G is looking only deep over the middle....twice in the same drive lol
BBDLS: 0-1 (-0.7u) Rough, felt pretty confident about this one if the Rams covered. Still have one live though! :D
SBBDLS: 0-1 (-0.5u) Man, I picked everything right on the card today, got HOU under, Rams +6, but both my HOU -3 and NE -7 were pushes, and in this contest a push is a loss. I might try again Today.
Teasers: 1-0 (+1u) Hit the one posted and I put a big one in at the Ocean. It is still live. I will post it at the bottom in the teaser section.
New Orleans at Tennessee (+2.5): Both teams come into this game looking for a win. NO has clinched their division, but is still looking for a number one seed in the playoffs. TEN is looking for the upset here to set up a huge rematch vs the Texans in W17. My algo actually has this pretty close to a PK with TEN favored after hfa is added. It will be very interesting to see how TEN handles the pressure of playing to stay alive in the playoffs. One huge note is the Saints average 420 total ypg at home but only 311 on the road. Brees is always a little more comfortable in his dome and there is predicted rain on Sunday in TEN. I'd say the worse the weather is, the more I lean TEN and the under.
NY Giants at Washington (-2): A divisional match up here with no playoff implications but some draft order implications. NY is fresh off a Manning led home win vs. the Dolphins. Washington is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and was on track to be 4-0 except some last second weirdness lead to philly covering. Upon writing this, it looks like Jones is going to be back at QB for NY. Unfortunately for the Giants, he has been very fumble prone this year and the WAS pass rush is quietly tied for 7th in sacks this season. If there is a spot for NY to attack, it would be the slot as that is WAS's biggest leak defensively. If Jones returns, I will be looking in the direction of Tate who has been quiet since Jones sat. With two bad teams not playing for the post season, anything is possible, but currently the algo is leaning WAS.
Pittsburgh at NY Jets (+3): Everyone is talking about a revenge game for Bell. I see it as the opposite. A revenge game for the Steelers to show Bell this game is a team effort. Honestly this is one of the tougher picks for me. The algo has PIT -1. What makes these games that involve the bottom 10 teams in the league difficult to cap is you just don't know if they want to win. Every win hurts their draft stock for next season so yea, a win is nice, but it doesn't benefit the team except a day of feel good. Obviously I want to side with a Steeler defense that has been keeping them in the playoff hunt allowing 21 points or less in each of the last six games. ...But who knows if duck is going to flop or fly like an Eagle.... With such a low total, there's no props except defensive that I would look at. As for a side, I will probably fade this game.
Cincinnati at Miami (+1): This game features another two teams high up in the draft order. It opened as MIA -3 but has quickly moved to the other side and sits at CIN -1. My algo leans Cincy just based on the fact that their defense is slightly better and offensively they just have more options. ALL CIN WRs and RBs have a favorable match up here but I would say Mixon is the safest option as taking the RB takes the risk of Dalton not being able to get it to his receivers. As for MIA, they only player I have been looking at for them is DeVante Parker.
Carolina at Indianapolis (-6.5): Both teams are coming off losses and neither team has a chance to make the playoffs. Carolina will be starting a new QB. How can you cap that? This is a prime game to either ride the ml of the dog or the points on the favorite. TY Hilton came back last week against the Saints but found no room to make anything happen. This week he draws a very weak Carolina secondary. Also, Mack has been quiet for the last few games but also has a very good match up in this game. CMC is only like 120 Rec yards away from having a 1k and 1k season. With a new starting QB and only 2 games to hit the record and not much else for the "team" to play for...I will be looking for CMC to do some work.
Baltimore at Cleveland (+10): This game opened at 7 and has since moved up to 10. Cleveland is out of the playoffs and essentially playing for pride. Baltimore has clinched their division, a playoff spot, and now plays for the number one seed in the post season. Baltimore hasn't lost since the played CLE in week 4. Wouldn't it be crazy if Baltimore had this crazy good season but somehow got swept by CLE in the regular season? It would almost validate all of CLE's struggles this season. It probably won't happen with as bad as CLE has been vs. the run, especially since losing Myles Garret but it's an interesting thought.
Jacksonville at Atlanta (-7): This is another one of those anything can happen games. Last week the Falcon's showed life by upsetting the 49ers. They have been much better defensively since their bye week and it show going 4-2. Jacksonville flamed out of the playoffs after putting Foles back into the lineup, but as soon as they benched him for the Mustache, they won again. However, in non conference games since 2015 ATL is 5-23 ATS. and vs. the AFC since 2017....0-11 ATS. So as hard as it may be, I am going to once again ride with the Stache and his number one target, Chark.
Detroit at Denver (-6.5): Both of these teams coming off brutal losses. DET was crushed at home by Winston and it looks like they have resigned to trying to get the best draft pick. DEN was crushed in a snow game in KC but haven't given up, upsetting HOU the week before. The only negative I see for DEN players is the timing of the game. They have been on the road for the last 4 games and now come home to play on Christmas week. Hopefully they can handle business because they have the wonderful opportunity to go up against a DET secondary that hasn't won a game since October.
Oakland at LA Chargers (-6.5): Both 4pm games feature losing teams coming off disappointing losses. OAK lost their final home game in OAK ever to the Mustache led Jags and the Chargers lost their last game in a home blowout loss to MIN. Neither team has playoff hopes and a win only hurts their draft stock. The algo is favoring the Chargers as both teams have an offense with potential, but the LAC have clear advantage on the defensive side of the ball. However, as neither teams could use a win as much as a loss, this is another low confidence lean, not a smash.
Dallas at Philadelphia (+1.5): DUN DUN DUNNNNN. The playoffs are here! These two teams face off in what is essentially a game for the NFC East division title, and a trip to the playoffs. Both teams are coming off wins. DAL dismantled the Rams last week in an impressive showing, while PHL struggled against WAS but pulled it out in the end. Philly has one of the better run defenses in the league, but Zeek just seems to crush the Eagles, "Elliott has never lost to the Eagles; he’s 5-0. Since 2016, the Eagles are 2-5 against Dallas and their only two wins have come without Elliott in the lineup. In five career games against the Eagles, Elliott has 815 yards from scrimmage (163 per game) and three touchdowns " Should be interesting to see which continues. The Eagles good run game? Or Zeke's Eagle Dominance?
Arizona at Seattle (-9.5): Last of the mid day games. A divisional match up that means nothing for AZ but one that SEA would love to book in the W column as they are still fighting for playoff seeding. Last time these two teams played SEA had an EZ W, But, that was one of the only games that SEA has played that didnt end within 1 score. It's already 1130 today so I don't have time to do the in depth analysis for every game today, but the algo is leaning on AZ and a high scoring game here. If I have time today I will update this analysis with which props I am taking, currently none because I want to get the early picks posted but tune back in later in the day to see if this gets update with props for this game.
Kansas City at Chicago (+6.5): Chicago is out of the playoffs with that loss to GB last week. KC is starting to get hot at the right time. Chi is 2-0 ATS as a home dog this year, but I cant step in front of the KC train. Their team stock went way down after the losses and PM injury and everyone forgot about them. Now it seems PM is back to his last season form with almost full hand strength. Along with his progression, the KC defense has really stepped up in the last few weeks. Right now with the number under +7, the algo is leaning with the favorite.
Singles 123-128-3 (+18.8u)
I will update more bets and analysis for the later games as the day goes on. I just want to put these picks out with now with enough time for everyone to read them.
Thanks for reading. Good luck to all! :D
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Singles: 0-1 (-2.9u) Not the best result here, haha. Alshon went down early and Tate got 6 targets but only converted one into a catch.
Parlay: 0-1 (-2u) Little rough here. Had NYG ml and was cruising the whole game. Giants D no bueno
BBDLS: 0-0 (0u)
SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u)
Teasers: 0-0 (0u)
Tampa Bay at Detriot (+3.5/+6): This one is all over the place. I am seeing spreads as low as 3.5 and as high as 6. It's a little curious to me. Yea, DET is starting a backup QB that has struggled a little going 0-2 so far. And yea, DET is 28th in sac rate, last in QB hit rate with a horrible secondary and nothing to play for this season playoff wise. And yes TB has been on fire recently going 3-0 and scoring and average of 30 ppg in their last 3... All of these signs point to backing TB...However, TB has the second-worst pass and scoring defense in football and Blough has shown the ability to get the ball to Galloday. Along with Evans and Winston appearing on the injury report, the Buccaneers could also be down linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul and receiver Scotty Miller. You would think this is going to be a shootout given both teams poor secondary and ability to big play throw to their WR1s. However, there appears to be some RLM on the total with over 75% of bets on the over, but the total dropping from 47.5 to 45.5. Very curious! I know it would hurt the DET draft stock, but I feel this is a prime spot for Blough to get his first NFL start/win. I was going to load up on props this game thinking it would be a shoot out, but the RLM has me worried in that department, so I will probably limit my exposure on this game. There are plenty of better spot this weekend.
Extra Note: TB has gone 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a road favorite...
Philadelphia at Washington (+5.5/+6): Well, I am kinda mad at PHL for that comeback on Monday night. :P
Speaking of Monday night, Philly is playing on a short week and has injuries to half the team. Alshon is done for the season, Aghalor is Questionable, Howard had to come out of the Monday night game due to cramping. This is a clear low scoring spot so looking at props is questionable. The total has dropped almost 2 points but not though any key numbers yet from 40.5 down to 38.5. The next big number is 37. Honestly this is a crapshoot of a game. Philly is still playing for a playoff spot but they just have such a limited offence to work with. With the limited receiving core (essentially the two TEs) the algo favors the under on the PHL team total of 23.5. Also, it's hard not to look at the home dog catching almost a TD in a game with such a low total...
Chicago at Green Bay (-4/-5): Here is a game that could have some serious playoff implications. Chicago is trying to win out just to have a hope that the right teams win and lose for them to make it in. GB is now playing for playoff seating. On a neutral field, I would definitely be favoring the Bears here. However, GB at home is a totally different team. They are 2nd in ypp at home vs. 31st on the road take that stat and add it with CHI has only covered one spread OTR this season...makes it a scary look for CHI. However, the GB defense is one of the worst for how good their record is, conversely, the CHI defense is much better than it's record dictates and the CHI offense looks much better chemistry wise than they did in the first half of the season. As you can tell, my model is leaning CHI here and there is RLM to support. Currently the about 55/60% of the bets are on GB, however the line has moved from an open as high as -7 down to as low as currently -4.
Extra Note: Bears: 7-0 SU and ATS when both teams are coming off a home game, and 5-0 SU and ATS in division games with QB Mitchell Tribusky when Chicago owns a winning record … Packers: 1-6 ATS in Last Home Games in division games when coming off a non-division game
New England at Cincinnati (+10): We're on to Cincinnati... A week ago, when we were filming there sideline signals...
In all fairness does anyone think NE would actually NEEED the Bengals signals to beat them... They came out as a 10 point road favorite! I dont get this one and honestly it feels like media bias to have something to talk about for a week and to blame when the Patriots win another Superbowl. There is some cause to be weary of this spread. Edleman is questionable but I just don't see enough to warrant a stay away. Here's an extra stat found for the Patriots: "The Pats are 41-17 ATS off a loss... and have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot for years as well, going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams with losing records (which includes going 4-0 ATS this season) and a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after having lost two out of their last three SU. The Bengals on the other hand are a money-burning 8-13 ATS in their last 21 at home, including 1-4 already this season."
Houston at Tennessee(-3): This line moved quick! It opened as low as -1 but as soon as HOU fell on their face last week and TEN beat OAK, this spread quickly moved to -3. A justified move imo as since the RT insertion, TEN has been the number one offence in the league. They have also tripled their no huddle rate for a more uptempo offense. They will be facing a HOU D that has, quite frankly, SUCKED since JJ watt got hurt. The model likes a lot of Henry in this one (Not surprising he is the KEY to the TEN offense) combined with a ton of PA Passing for TEN going for big plays. The model favor's TEN but as the spread climbs higher it looks like a weaker play.
Seattle at Carolina(+6): This is one of the harder games for me to cap this week. On the one hand, its a west coast team traveling East for a 1pm game. On the other hand, its the Seahawks doing it and RW has a great track record in these games. Also, it looks like the Carolina defense is giving up... in their last 5 games, teams have scored on more than half of possessions vs CAR. Penny is out, but Carson is back and ready to go against one of the leagues worst defenses vs the run. On the other side we have CMC who is also facing a shotty defense. I do think this is a potential upset spot. Any time I see a home team plus 6, it always red flags a teaser breaker, however with the "destiny run" that Wilson is on this year I would say the chances are lower than a regular spot.
Denver at Kansas City (-10): Another one I am really torn on. KC has beat DEN last 7 times SU and ATS. However, we are still uncertain of the health of PMs hand. He looked great in the first half of the NE game, but then just stopped doing anything in the second half. Overall, he started the season with an 18-1 TD/INT ratio, but since returning from injury has a ratio of 3-2. Also, the DEN pass D is pretty good and has Lock on the other side of the ball playing with high confidence, starting his career 2-0. Don't get me wrong, its totally possible KC wins this game 27-13 or 31-20, something like that...but with the total dropping from an average 47 open to 44.5 now and the spread dropping from 13.5 down to 9.5/10, I think there is still value on Denver. KC will be playing as hard as they can as there is still a chance at the two seed. Still, as I stated, the model is leaning DEN and the points here.
Miami at New York Giants (-3.5): Not much to say here. Both defense are shit. Eli's last home game for NY and most likely his last chance to end with a .500 W/L record. I'm gonna just go with the Manning conspiracy and say that the Manning family had a hand in Parker getting his contract extension, he will sit or play poorly, and Eli will get a great game send off at home. No stats. Fade if you dont like conspiracy theories. XD
Jacksonville at Oakland (-6.5): Another big line movement. Opened at 4.5, is up to mostly 6.5. Last week the Jaguars, (31st) in run D, lost their best linebacker and leading tackler in Myles Jack. This week they lost another linebacker in Quincy Williams who is the fourth linebacker that Jacksonville has lost this season. This Sunday should be a great day for Josh Jacobs who only needs 246 yards to break Saquan's rookie-of-the-year mark of 1,307 yards. Even if Jacobs is hurt, DeAndre Washington, who filled in nicely last week, will get the chance to carve up the Jaguars. I do think that this is a good look for the over. Both defenses suck the only deterrent here is DJ Chark the shark might be out for this one, hurting JAX chances at keeping up.
Cleveland at Arizona (+3): This is another curious spot for me. The Browns are pretty much done for the season in regards to playoff chances. Theoretically they could win out but like the Bears they would need a ton of help, and a win over the Ravens. They do face an ARZ team that is horrible against the pass and has been a money loser for most of the season at home. The algo doesn't have a definite lean here, but as the points rise, the AZ ml looks tempting. This game also has the potential for a big props game as CLE has very good WCB match ups.
Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5): Some Serious RLM in this one. Almost 70% of bets on MIN yet the line has gone from a -3 open to -1/-1.5 in most spots. This is actually really weird. MIN has almost everyone healthy again, Theilin, Diggs...both back. LAC stadium as we know has almost no HFA...w.t.f. Also, this game missed out on the flex to the night game which went to BUF/PIT... Can you say, " The fix is in" All statistics point to MIN picking up an easy win. Then why is the line dropping? Well, lets dive deeper into the stats...
One last piece of information that makes the Chargers one of the BEST SPOTS TO TEASE this week :
Atlanta at San Francisco (-10.5): The 49ers played a spectacular game last week to get a win over the Saints. This puts them in the hunt to get the top seed in the NFC. However, their injury list is growing at a fast rate at the wrong time.
They’re missing bodies at receiver, on the defensive line, on the offensive line (starting center Weston Richburg on IR) and in the secondary, where Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams, and safety Jaquiski Tartt are out or questionable heading into Sunday.
Since the bye week, Atlanta is 3-2 SU and ATS after 1-7 start. With all the injuries to SF here, I can easily see a backdoor cover from ATL. Hell, San Fran's final two games of the season are against divisional opponents (SEA and LAR) they might get caught resting and looking here and be in line for a surprise upset! XD
LA Rams at Dallas (+1): How did this game not get flexed into the night spot...? Is it because Philly is going to lose to Washington and this game means nothing for Dallas? I can't imagine if Philly gets a win here that Jerry Jones wouldn't want Americas team to not be in the spotlight when they are playing for a playoff chance...
Anyway, almost 80% of the tickets are on the Rams, and the line has moved heavily from -4 Dallas to -1/1.5 LAR.
If the Rams win out, they can almost control their destiny with a 96% chance of making the playoffs. There defense is better. Vander esch is still out for Dallas but Sean Lee may be good to go in this one. The Rams have been trying to get back to basics with Gurley over the last few weeks, and the Cowboys have been gashed in the run game so look for LA to continue with that strategy. Depending on how well Dak can move the ball against this Rams D, this game has the potential for a high scoring affair. The only thing that really worries me is with 80% of the tickets on LA and the line has yet to get up to -3, it looks as if the books dont want to give Dallas too many points. Maybe Dallas is actually the play here? Honestly, I think the best spot in this one is another teaser. The over looks prime and either side teased above 6/7 looks very attractive.
Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-1): Finally we get to the game that the NFL decided to flex into Sunday Primetime. Currently 70-80% of bets are on Buffalo and the spread has moved from 2.5 down to 1, but that isn't through any key numbers. Both teams have been great defensively and PIT sees the return of their starting RB. This has the makings of a tough, low scoring, grind it out type game. We say this every week it seems, but it's going to be a big test for Josh Allen to see if the Bills are truly a playoff contender or just had an easy schedule. So far he has done well winning 5 of 6 on the road this season with 3 of their 4 highest scoring games OTR. However, they will be facing a Steeler D that has been legit since the add of Fitzpatrick. Over the last 4 games(all wins) the Steelers are giving up only 16 ppg. Again, this game looks good for a tease. Both sides too in a low scoring grind it out game that looks to be decided by 1 score or less.
Singles 110-110-3 (+22.13u)
This is a separate box I am making for Borgata online bets. They decided to give me 10u for no reason. The only downside is they have a 6x rollover before I can take the winnings. Because of this I will try for parlays to hit more then 6x the bonus. None of the losses count against us, and none of the winnings count for us until I have rolled over 6x.
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-12 (-14.04u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-12 (-6u)
Thanks for reading. Good luck to all! :D
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